Israel May Cost Kamala Harris the Election

Biden's Gaza policy and Bibi's wars may tilt Michigan to Trump. What can she do?

Kamala Harris is leading by three points in the latest Michigan poll. But as Politico reports Wednesday morning, her “campaign is facing deep skepticism from Arab American voters…appalled by President Joe Biden’s handling of the war in the Middle East.”

Harris will likely be asked about the war during her CNN Town Hall at 9 pm Wednesday night. It may be one of her last chances to win back those so furious at Biden’s support for what they see as genocide that they cannot bear to vote for her.

What could she do?

First, let’s recognize her dilemma. There are 300,000 Arab-American voters in Michigan. Biden got 70 percent of their vote in 2020. This year, if just half abstain or vote against her it will cost her 150,000 votes - and that’s not counting the young Michigan voters repulsed by a year of American arms killing tens of thousands of innocent civilians in Gaza, the West Bank and now Lebanon. In 2020, Biden won Michigan by 154,000 votes.

If Harris comes out too strongly for an end to the war, however, or for withholding arms to Israel, she could run afoul of Jewish-American voters. There are 5.8 million adults in the United States who identify as Jewish. 300,000 of them vote in Pennsylvania. Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by just 80,000 votes. Many of these voters also oppose Netanyahu’s conduct of the wars, but many others are terrified of rising anti-semitism and don’t want to lessen American support of Israel. Withholding weapons - even in compliance with U.S. laws - could cost Harris their votes.

If Harris loses Michigan and Arizona, she will have to win Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and either Georgia or North Carolina to win. Possible but difficult. If she wins Michigan and the rest of the Rust Belt, she will win outright. So, how to ensure victory in Michigan and keep Pennsylvania?

One person that I would listen to is Middle East expert Matt Duss. The former national security advisor to Sen. Bernie Sanders, Matt is now the Executive Vice-President of the Center for International Policy (CIP) in Washington, D.C. I recently joined the CIP board because I was so impressed by the vision, dynamism and integrity of Matt and CIP President Nancy Okail (a scholar and human rights advocate forced to flee Egypt after being convicted and sentenced to prison by the Sissi dictatorship). She and Matt form a powerful leadership team, reinforced by a battalion of experts including former J Street lobbyist Dylan Williams, Iran expert Negar Mortazavi, communications maven Sara DuBois and many more.

Last week, Matt wrote an oped for The New York Times on this issue. Vice-President Harris would benefit from following his advice. The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar provides an opportunity, he says:

The United States and its partners have a window to halt the downward spiral to regional conflagration. The Biden administration must press the Netanyahu government and remaining Hamas officials to end the war in Gaza, return hostages to their families, surge humanitarian aid into the territory and urgently take other steps to ensure that Gazans have adequate shelter, supplies and security as winter approaches.

The Biden Administration agrees. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Israel trying to convince Israeli leader Bibi Netanyahu to stop the bombardment of Gaza and Lebanon. But his efforts are likely to fail, just as his previous ten trips have failed.

Bibi knows that if he stops the wars, the far-right block lead by Itmar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smoltrich will pull out of his coalition government, collapsing it. These groups don’t see the wars as a problem, but as the solution. “The most basic and understandable thing is that when your enemy is on his knees, you do not allow him to recover, but work to defeat him,” boasted Ben Gvir. They talk openly about occupying and resettling Gaza, the annexation of the West Bank and intensifying the invasion of Lebanon.

“History shows that this is folly,” says Duss. “The only certain destination on that path is more death, destruction and chaos.”

It is imperative to seize this moment and move off the current path toward larger conflict that could imperil millions more to one that seeks to face and resolve the underlying and intertwined conflicts in the region. Only the United States has the power, the relationships and influence to steer us toward that path. Amid the chaos and destruction in the region, President Biden must use it.

The problem is that Biden won’t do that before the election. To their credit, Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin sent a letter to Netanyahu on October 13 warning him that if he did not stop blocking food, medicine and other humanitarian supplies from getting into Gaza, the administration would curtail arms deliveries to Israel.

Deliveries have dropped 50 percent since this Spring and no food has gotten into Northern Gaza since October 1 putting one million people in danger of starvation. U.S. law prohibits sending arms to nations that deny, impede or otherwise restrict humanitarian aid. They wrote:

We are particularly concerned that recent actions by the Israeli government – including halting commercial imports, denying or impeding nearly 90 percent of humanitarian movements between northern and southern Gaza in September, continuing burdensome and excessive dual-use restrictions, and instituting new vetting and onerous liability and customs requirements for humanitarian staff and shipments – together with increased lawlessness and looting – are contributing to an accelerated deterioration in the conditions in Gaza.

They gave him 30 days to comply. But their deadline is a week after the election. Nothing is likely to happen before then.

Bibi ignored Biden and his secretaries. Netanyahu is increasing his attacks on Gaza and Lebanon, not decreasing them. Worse, he is very likely to attack Iran soon. Bibi may be calculating when to launch his attack so as to cause maximum harm to Harris. He long ago threw in with Donald Trump and the MAGA party. My guess is that the attack will happen a week out from the election. And that it will likely go beyond military targets, possibly provoking Iran into a wider war.

So what can Harris say? She can expand on the framework she has already established, but with more details on what she would actually do. After the death of Sinwar last week, Harris said, in part:

This moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza, and it must end such that Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends, and the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom, and self-determination.  And it is time for the day after to begin without Hamas in power.

We will not give up on these goals, and I will always work to create a future of peace, dignity, and security for all.

Michael Moore, also deeply worried over her prospects in Michigan, has several concrete suggestions for how she can fill this out. “The solution is simple and doable. It does not require you to be critical of President Biden,” he writes. “It simply asks that you side with the American people who in every poll have said that they do not support this war and they want an immediate ceasefire.’

Moore says Harris could pledge that she will bring the war to an ends once she is president. She could promise to deliver all forms of humanitarian aid immediately and will rebuild homes and hospitals in Gaza. These pledges would speak directly to Arab-American concerns without alienating those Jewish-American voters backing Israel.

More tricky, but still smart, would be for Harris to “state that there will be a new understanding with Israel in your administration, one that will lead the way to real peace and a two-state solution — which will do more than anything else to create a safe and secure Israel. This relationship will require that all U.S. and international laws are to be followed by all countries to whom we give aid.”

This would be accompanied by reassuring the Israeli people that “the American people are their closest friends and that their security is paramount to us. We will never again allow our Jewish sisters and brothers to face what they suffered in the 20th century.” And by gaining the freedom of all hostages in Gaza.

Moore, Duss and others have rung the alarm about Michigan and offered solid recommendations for how to win the state, win the nation and begin to turn the page on a year of failed U.S. policy on Israel.

Is it too late? “Until Election Day, it’s never too late,” writes Washington Post columnist Shadi Hamid. “The Harris campaign needs a wake-up call.”

We have to hope Harris answers the call.