New Year Begins with Middle East on a Knife's Edge
Killing of Hamas leader and horrific bombing in Iran threaten regional war
Just as it seemed Israel was beginning to scale down its war in Gaza, its assassination of a senior Hamas leader and a bombing in Iran at a memorial gathering for slain Gen. Soleimani threaten to dramatically escalate the conflict.
This morning, I did an interview with Zerlina Maxwell for her SiriusXM show. She is kind enough to bring me on regularly to discuss the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and other global conflicts. Preparing for the interview yesterday, I planned to lead with the indicators of de-escalation in the Gaza war - the first glimmers of hope since the war began as a response to the horrific October 7 slaughter by Hamas of about 1200 people in Israel. But events of the last 24 hours changed all that.
An Israeli drone fired precision missiles at an Hamas office in the outskirts of Beirut, Lebanon on January 2, killing Hamas deputy political leader Saleh al-Arouri, two other Hamas officials and several others. The most senior Hamas leader killed by Israel in the almost three-month war, al-Arouri had close ties to Iran and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah. Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah warned of “a response and punishment” in a speech on January 3.
Although Hezbollah has pledged its support to Hamas, up to now it has limited its military actions to the narrow strip along the Lebanon-Israel border. Israeli officials are bracing for escalating attacks. Fears are mounting that such attacks and counter-attacks could develop into an all-out war. Hezbollah has a much more formidable military force than Hamas, with the ability to launch tens of thousands of rockets into Israel.
Also on Wednesday, 100 people were killed and 140 injured in two blasts, perhaps from suicide bombers, at the grave site of Iranian General Qassam Soleimani. A memorial service was being held to mark the anniversary of his assassination in Iraq by a drone sent by the Trump administration four years ago.
If perpetrated by suicide bombers, it would be more likely that the attack was done by Islamic State radicals than Israeli operatives. But Iran has a history of blaming such attacks on Israel, further raising fears of retaliation and a broadening of the conflict.
War with Israel would not seem to be in the interests of either Iran or Hezbollah, I told Maxwell on her show. Major voices in Lebanon are calling for restraint, including the Lebanese Patriarch of the Maronite Catholic Church who three days ago issued a call to prevent the outbreak of war with Israel. Iran generally views events in the region moving in its favor, as the Israeli government’s bombing of Gaza has galvanized Arab publics against Israel, destroyed prospects of closer Israeli relations with Arab governments, strengthened Iranian-backed militia groups in the “Axis of Resistance” and weakened U.S. influence in the region. Iran’s leaders may want to keep the pot simmering rather have it boil over into full-scale war.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s planned visit to the region late this week (his fourth since October 7) now has new urgency. US diplomacy has succeeded so far in its top strategic objective after the terrorist attack: prevent a regional war. As horrific as the war in Gaza has been and as badly as it has damaged U.S. relations and its reputation, it pales compared to the harm a regional war would cause to core U.S. national security interests.
Until the events of the past two days, the U.S. finally seemed to be making progress on ending Israel’s major operations in Gaza (thus reducing the risks the conflict would spread). By several indicators, the Israeli offensive seems to have reached its culmination point.
Though scores of Palestinians die every day, Israeli bombing and shelling attacks have decreased in intensity and frequency. Israel announced that it would withdraw five brigades of troops from Gaza, in part due to U.S. pressure to shift to lower-intensity operations, in part due to the dire effect the extending deployment of reserve forces is having on the Israeli economy which is expected to shrink 2 percent due to the war. The U.S. withdrew one of its two aircraft carrier battle groups, moving the USS Gerald Ford out of the eastern Mediterranean where it had deployed since October 7.
While Israel continues to throttle humanitarian aid into Gaza, assistance is slowly increasing. It is still not enough. With half of all housing destroyed in Gaza and almost 2 million people displaced, the people trapped in Gaza face starvation, disease and now hypothermia as winter begins. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said on Wednesday. “There’s not enough of it coming in. It’s too inconsistent and the number of trucks that get in every day, they need to go up dramatically, and they need to stay up.”
The State Department has also hit back forcefully on statements from leading members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet who have called for the forced expulsion of all Palestinians from Gaza, reflecting a long-held view of the far-right that the only way to keep Israel secure is to force out all Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza. While once on the fringe of Israeli politics, these views are now inside Netanyahu’s government. The State Department took the unusual step of calling out the extremists by name.
“The United States rejects recent statements from Israeli Ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir advocating for the resettlement of Palestinians outside of Gaza. This rhetoric is inflammatory and irresponsible,” Miller said in a statement January 2.
Secretary Blinken will have to use all of his formidable skills to push back on calls for increased violence from all sides and prevent an escalation of the war. If he succeeds - and I think the odds are that he will - he will have to pressure Netanyahu to further de-escalate his attacks on Gaza.
Hugely unpopular in Israel, and having failed in his attempted judicial coup (the Israeli Supreme Court on January 1 struck down Netanyahu’s law that would have sharply limited the ability of courts to overrule decisions made by government officials), Netanyahu’s grip on power depends on his continuing the war. Once it ends, so, too, will his government.
Blinken’s hand may be strengthened by growing Congressional opposition to unconditional aid to Israel. On Tuesday, Senator Bernie Sanders called for the end of funding for Netanyahu’s “immoral war.”
“While we recognize that Hamas’ barbaric attack began this war, we must also recognize that Israel’s military response has been grossly disproportionate, immoral, and in violation of international law,” he said in a statement. Sanders argued that giving Israel the $10 billion in military aid requested by the Biden administration would amount to “unconditional military aid for the right-wing Netanyahu government to continue its brutal war against the Palestinian people.”
“Enough is enough. Congress must reject that funding,” he said.
Congress in unlikely to block the aid. The forces favoring it are simply too powerful. But Israel’s conduct of the war is weakening support for Israel. Sanders’ move is just one example. Other members have called for conditioning aid; polls show public support for Israel is fading, particularly among young voters. Blinken can use that in his talks with Netanyahu. He has the cards he needs, if he is willing to play them.
Note: I took an extending break from writing this newsletter over the holidays. With the new year, I am back at it. You can expect me to post analysis on national security issues once or twice a week in 2024. Thank you for reading!
I was a supporter of Israel’s response, but that support has reluctantly been eroded by the unacceptable harm Israel’s military action has had on the children. I don’t know what strategy can or will be employed to destroy Hamas, or if that is even possible, but any military action that continues to results in the injury and death of children was and, now more than ever, is not acceptable.