PRACTICAL STEPS TO REDUCE NUCLEAR DANGERS
We are in a new nuclear arms race. Nuclear-armed states are increasing the danger that these weapons will be used. Here are some practical ways to reduce the risks.
I was honored to be included in a panel at the United Nations on October 24 on “Achieving Tangible Cooperation and Compliance to Avert Nuclear Catastrophe.” The event was sponsored by the America Society of International Law and the Permanent Representatives to the United Nations from Austria and Kuwait. James Acton, Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, Mona Ali Khalil and I spoke with about one hundred delegates from around the world. The fact that the panel convened on United Nations Day was an added bonus.
I would like to share with you the one-page memo I presented, below.
My view, in brief, is that we are in a new nuclear arms race. Every nuclear-armed state is building new nuclear weapons. Some - like North Korea, China, India and Pakistan - are increasing their arsenals. Some, like the United States and Russia, are replacing every one of their existing weapons and considering vastly increasing their arsenals. Two nuclear-armed states - Russia and Israel - are in major wars that risk the use of their weapons. None are proposing new measures to restrict, reduce, let alone eliminate, these weapons.
For the past few years, the United States and Russia have actively dismantled many of the key nuclear guardrails, including treaties that prohibited certain kinds of nuclear weapons and provided transparency into their arsenals of 5,000+ nuclear weapons each.
Russia is actively building new types of nuclear weapons, threatening to scuttle the nuclear Test Ban Treaty, and preparing to bust out of any limits on the size of its force. The United States is on a similar course. Recently, a Congressionally-appointed “U.S. Strategic Posture Commission” gave a full-throated endorsement of U.S. plans to spend $2 Trillion on new nuclear weapons, including $75 Billion a year for the next ten years. Worse, the panel called for a new nuclear build up. It is perhaps the worst nuclear weapons report I have ever read, and that’s saying something.
I told the UN delegates that we are on the defensive. The nuclear hawks have the initiative. That does not mean we give up. It means that we have to work harder to rebut their false assurances that nuclear weapons bring security, alert the public to the dangers, and propose modest, achievable measures that can help pull us back from the nuclear brink.
My proposal is one small contribution to that effort.
PRACTICAL STEPS TO REDUCE NUCLEAR DANGERS
A Proposal from Joseph Cirincione, former President, Ploughshares Fund
October 24, 2023
THE PROBLEM
Dangers from nuclear weapons are increasing. Government and active public support for reducing and eliminating those weapons is decreasing. Growing tensions between nuclear-armed states thwart the continuation of arms control and disarmament efforts that have proven successful in the past. A new nuclear arms race has begun. A conflict involving a nuclear-armed state could escalate to nuclear use, potentially large-scale nuclear use. Any such use would be catastrophic. The explosion of even a small portion of the over 12,000 nuclear weapons held by nine nations could kill billions of people.
THE PROPOSED SOLUTION
In order to improve cooperation and compliance with obligations under existing treaties and agreements, diplomats, experts and advocates can undertake actions that increase awareness of the nuclear threats and present concrete steps to reduce these threats.
A: At a minimum, we must work to increase global attention of the nuclear risks. We cannot cede ground to those who believe nuclear weapons offer security, prestige and profit.
B: We must defend the existing nuclear guardrails. Protect and strengthen the international non-proliferation regime; stop the destructions of the remaining arms control agreements.
C: We must encourage global fora, national governments and large non-governmental organizations to include nuclear dangers in their work to protect the planet and its populations.
D: While embracing the ultimate goal of the elimination of nuclear weapons, we must promote nuclear risk reduction measures.
I have advised The Elders, an independent group of former international and national leaders founded by Nelson Mandala in 2007 and now chaired by former Irish President Mary Robinson. They have recently published a policy paper on nuclear weapons -- a practical plan for nuclear risk reduction that they call “The Four D’s” including:
1. Doctrine: Every nuclear-armed state should declare a “No First Use” policy
2. De-Alerting: Take as many weapons as possible off the current high-alert status
3. Deployment: Reduce the number of weapons operationally deployed
4. Decrease: Reduce the total number of nuclear weapons.
THE BENEFITS AND BENEFICIARIES
All nations and peoples would benefit from these plans. While working for more permanent solutions, like the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons which entered into force in January 2021, and pressing for renewed arms reduction talks between the U.S. and Russia, these practical steps offer policies that can be implemented now. Some can be done unilaterally. Each reduces the risk of nuclear use. Coupled with efforts to preserve the current non-proliferation regime, including achieving the entry into force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, these steps can measurably increase the security of peoples and States world-wide.
P.S. After I published the last newsletter, “Biden’s Big Hug and Quiet Punches,” I joined Bill Press on his podcast. If you have a few minutes, I hope you will listen to our discussion of the Israel-Hamas Gaza War and the danger of its dramatic escalation: http://bit.ly/3jCewLV
