Why the US-Israel Bombings Did Not Stop Iran's Nuclear Program
Let's unpack what the attacks actually did and did not do.
For some reason, over one thousand of you watch some or all of the last video I posted, in lieu of my usual essays. So, let’s try it again. Here is a video version of a podcast published today by Matt Fulton on his “Secrets and Spies” podcast.
We go over the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear capabilities, why these attacks prove (once again) that military action alone cannot stop a country’s nuclear program and what a diplomatic path forward might looked like.
We also got a bit wonky, examining the technical realities of uranium enrichment and the possibility of covert development of a Bomb. Finally, we look at the unintended consequences of this 12-day war: the risk of dragging us back to the nuclear anarchy of the 1950’s, when many nations — friends and foes — sought nuclear weapons.
If I have done this right, you should be able to watch the YouTube video directly in this newsletter. Just click the play button. Then, please let me know what you think.
Here's a case FOR the Iranian nuclear program.
There appears to be zero chance that we will ever remove the nuclear threat to humanity through the processes of reason alone. Facts, reason, evidence, data, diplomacy, expert analysis etc, none of that has worked for 80 years. The situation is getting worse, not getting better. So....
Sooner or later there's going to be another nuclear detonation somewhere. This is not only inevitable, it's necessary, because what 80 years of evidence is saying is that the only way human beings are ever going to truly grasp the threat posed by nuclear weapons is through pain.
The question is, will the pain come in the right dose? Will the pain be large enough to wake us up, and yet also small enough to allow for a change of course?
If the next detonation comes from any of the great powers, that will probably be game over time. But, if the needed next detonation comes from a small power, the required pain may come in a suitable dose, big enough, but not too big. One or two bombs, instead of thousands.
The hopeful alternative to willful nuclear weapons use would be a nuclear weapons accident. Given the large number of near misses that have happened over the years, it's not unreasonable to guess that a nuclear weapons accident is indeed a real possibility.
The sad irony is that if we were truly rational and honest with ourselves, we would be hoping for a nuclear weapons accident, because it's either that or something worse.
Thank you, Joe. This was fascinating ... and understandable.