I agree with Joe. Until real data is available we really don't know. Although it has been some time, I once worked in the command and control portion of SDI. While things may very well have improved, it is still an extremely difficult task to hit a ballistic missile, especially if countermeasures are employed or the missile acts erractically. Also it is quite likely (as Joe states) that many intercepts destroyed the missiles but left the warheads intact. If chemical payloads are involved (as Iran has done before) then there is an additional problem in the mix.
I have trouble accepting the very high intercept rate touted by Israel. They claimed 99% back in April (that included drones and other systems as well so it is hard to parse out the ballistic portion).
So while I am glad the Iranian attack was not all that effective lets not think Israel (or any country) is invulnerable to attack.
It's only a matter of time until WMD gets introduced in to this conflict in some form.
10 million Israelis will never be able to permanently subjugate a half billion Arabs and Persians. And the Arabs and Persians show no sign of being able to defeat Israel. And so, because nobody is in a position to win, the conflict will go on, and on, with no end in sight.
They started this fight with rifles and tanks. Now it's drones and missiles. That progression will continue with ever more powerful technology being brought to bear. Sooner or later, one way or another, this will become a WMD war.
Your article has a fundamental flaw. The video show the iron Dome attempting to make final intercept. The arrow is designed to intercept either in the upper atmosphere or outside the atmosphere therefore, most of those interceptions would not be visible from cameras near the locations of the impact. The iron dome was not designed intercept ballistic missiles and is only usedin a last resort if the arrow and David sling have failed to intercept the arrows are fired from a different location far from the impact site.
I respectfully disagree. I don’t believe that is correct. Arrows are similar to the Patriot system. They are what we are seeing in the videos. Iron Dome interceptors are designed for very short range rockets and have little or no capability against ballistic missiles.
Censorship certainly doesn't help. I don't believe that any reporters have been allowed on the bases the Iran attacked. Even without the censorship, if the government doesn't release its internal assessments of ground damage, interceptor data and effectivess of interceptor attempts, we are handicapped in making independent assessments.
Sometimes the Five O'Clock Follies happen at other hours.
After I published this article, I saw Jeffrey Lewis's investigation of damage at the Israeli air bases using satellite data: https://www.timesofisrael.com/satellite-imagery-appears-to-show-damage-at-air-base-after-iranian-missile-strike/
I agree with Joe. Until real data is available we really don't know. Although it has been some time, I once worked in the command and control portion of SDI. While things may very well have improved, it is still an extremely difficult task to hit a ballistic missile, especially if countermeasures are employed or the missile acts erractically. Also it is quite likely (as Joe states) that many intercepts destroyed the missiles but left the warheads intact. If chemical payloads are involved (as Iran has done before) then there is an additional problem in the mix.
I have trouble accepting the very high intercept rate touted by Israel. They claimed 99% back in April (that included drones and other systems as well so it is hard to parse out the ballistic portion).
So while I am glad the Iranian attack was not all that effective lets not think Israel (or any country) is invulnerable to attack.
It's only a matter of time until WMD gets introduced in to this conflict in some form.
10 million Israelis will never be able to permanently subjugate a half billion Arabs and Persians. And the Arabs and Persians show no sign of being able to defeat Israel. And so, because nobody is in a position to win, the conflict will go on, and on, with no end in sight.
They started this fight with rifles and tanks. Now it's drones and missiles. That progression will continue with ever more powerful technology being brought to bear. Sooner or later, one way or another, this will become a WMD war.
Your article has a fundamental flaw. The video show the iron Dome attempting to make final intercept. The arrow is designed to intercept either in the upper atmosphere or outside the atmosphere therefore, most of those interceptions would not be visible from cameras near the locations of the impact. The iron dome was not designed intercept ballistic missiles and is only usedin a last resort if the arrow and David sling have failed to intercept the arrows are fired from a different location far from the impact site.
I respectfully disagree. I don’t believe that is correct. Arrows are similar to the Patriot system. They are what we are seeing in the videos. Iron Dome interceptors are designed for very short range rockets and have little or no capability against ballistic missiles.
Joe, wouldn't it be the case that Israel's censorship orders are preventing the publication of a lot of the damage, especially to military bases?
Censorship certainly doesn't help. I don't believe that any reporters have been allowed on the bases the Iran attacked. Even without the censorship, if the government doesn't release its internal assessments of ground damage, interceptor data and effectivess of interceptor attempts, we are handicapped in making independent assessments.