Joe, I don't know where you get the "likely several thousand" Hamas killed figure, but it is way to high. Here is how I derive a figure of around one thousand. Recent numbers put total-deaths at around 15,000 and child-deaths at ar0ound 6,000. Children represent about 43% of the Gaza population. If we assume -- fairly I think -- that the child-deaths can be assigned to indiscriminate bombardment, i.e. not intentional, then we can extrapolate to the total number of indiscriminate deaths by dividing the child-deaths by 43%, yielding a number just shy of 14,000. This means that the total number of discriminate death is just over 1,000.
["But wait.", one might object, "aren't there some Hamas casualties among the indiscriminate deaths?" Yes, a few. Israel claims there are 30,000 Hamas fighters. The total Gaza population is 2,100,000, i.e. one out of 700 Gazans. So, of the 14,000 indisriminate deaths, 20 might be Hamas fighters. This does not significantly change the overall picture.]
When one looks at the women deaths, while assuming they represent 50% of the adult population, nearly all are covered by indiscriminate death. That matches my impression that nearly all of the Hamas fighters are men.
The ratio of indiscriminate to discriminate death is around 15 to 1. This is high but not atypical of asymmetric urban warfare. It is the scale of this attack which makes it particularly horrific. Although I, and among others INEW, would contend that use of explosive force in densely populated areas ought to be outlawed. Aaron
On the issue of civilian deaths. The New York Times report on these deaths is truly stunning. Researchers estimate that 70 percent of all the casualties are women and children. In past conflicts with Hamas in Gaza, it was the reverse, with about 60 percent of the casualties being men.
Many of the deaths have been the result of Israel using very large bombs to level entire neighborhoods - a tactic that the US rejected in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The NYT reports that the majority of the bombs used in the initial assault were 1,000 or 2,000 lb bombs.
As the Times reports:
"Israel’s liberal use of very large weapons in dense urban areas, including U.S.-made 2,000-pound bombs that can flatten an apartment tower, is surprising, some experts say.
“It’s beyond anything that I’ve seen in my career,” said Marc Garlasco, a military adviser for the Dutch organization PAX and a former senior intelligence analyst at the Pentagon. To find a historical comparison for so many large bombs in such a small area, he said, we may “have to go back to Vietnam, or the Second World War.”
"In fighting during this century, by contrast, U.S. military officials often believed that the most common American aerial bomb — a 500-pound weapon — was far too large for most targets when battling the Islamic State in urban areas like Mosul, Iraq, and Raqqa, Syria."
The NYT concludes: "More children have been killed in Gaza since the Israeli assault began than in the world’s major conflict zones combined — across two dozen countries — during all of last year, even with the war in Ukraine, according to U.N. tallies of verified child deaths in armed conflict."
Thank you for your comment, Aaron. Israel says that about 1,500 Hamas fighters were killed in the October 7 assault. Or about half the number Israel believes were involved in the attack. IDF figures for the war in Gaza are vague but military commanders report scores of Hamas fighters killed in intense battles in northern Gaza. So, I used the phrase "several thousand" since we do not know. The IDF says 75 of its soldiers have died the fighting.
A senior Israeli military official said the assault had “significantly hurt” 10 of Hamas’s 24 battalions, which before the war each had about 1,000 soldiers. Including the roughly 1,000 militants killed in Israel after Hamas launched the October 7 attack, Israeli officials estimate that 5,000 of Hamas’s roughly 25,000 fighters have now been killed. “It’s not 10,000, but it’s not 1,000. It’s something in the middle,” the senior military official said.
[I have a trick for getting around the NYT paywall, but it doesn't work for the FInancial Times. So, thanks for the quote.]
I was working with the figures for within Gaza; If the IDF is right about 1500 Al Qassam fighters in Israel, then that should be added to the appoximately 1000 in Gaza. Which is still not really "something in the middle."
The 5,000 guesstimate would suggest that Israel believes that children are dying indiscriminately at a rate almost 50% higher than adults. I don't find that credible. Once the dust settles (hopefully sooner than later), we might get a clearer picture. One thing we know already: it won't be pretty.
Apologies for hogging comment space, but I have some points to make which might very well not be made otherwise. I am for prolonging the pause, but not for a permanent ceasefire. Hamas will portray a ceasefire as a great victory. All the dead will be declared, "Martyrs!" The friends and relative of the dead will encouraged to feel proud of their "sacrifice" for the glorious cause. As you, Joe, and others have pointed out, Hamas' recruitment will boom, easily replacing the thousand lost. A pause will cast doubt on any supposed "victory", it will raise the question of how much more sacrifice is expected.
But a pause alone will not make a significant difference. As you point out, demanding that 2.1 million Gazan cram into 14 square-kms is utter madness. Any humane version of urban warfare MUST be accompanied by urban welfare. Israel is demanding that these millions of people move, disrupting every aspect of their lives, so -- in my book -- Israel is responsible for their welfare. That means food, shelter. water, sanitation, and health care. Hamas originally gained popularity for its welfare programs, right now it is hording food for its fighters and sheltering in its tunnels. Imagine if Israel assumed responsibility for the welfare of the noncombattant Gazans. What a change of heart that might engender.
Is Israel capable of such generousity? Or rather assumption of resposnibility? I have zero confidence that Neyanyahu's gang is capable of it. The sooner a new government take over in Israel the better. I would like to beieve that the people of Israel are so capable. [One small positive step: Israel allowed Jordan to airdrop food and medical supplies to its hosptial in Gaza, twice.]
This war has its roots in 3000 years of turmoil. From the time a monotheistic tribe turned against the Cannanites. Year after year it goes on. Regardless of these historical issues, it now is the state of Israel against the people it surplanted in the late 1940's. It is long past time for this to stop. Israel is not going anywhere. And the Palestinians are going to feel wronged until a legitimate accommodation is made. It seems to me that most Arab countries are ready to end this cycle of violence. Hamas and other terrorist organizations need to be mitigated, not by endless violence, but by all of the governments in the region reaching a settlement that is fair to all. Endless killing will not fix anything. The Unitied States needs to be a mediator, not a facilitater. And only the USA has the leverage to do so.
Joe-How easy it is to sit at our desks and theorize. We don’t have any threat from marauders or 2000 lb bombs falling from the sky.
I think I was channeling Yogi, though when I responded to one of your earlier posts. If the ‘plan’ was to exterminate Hamas, it has been and will be a failure of epic proportions. I’d compare it to an effort to rid DC or NYC of rats. It ain’t gonna happen.
No one seems to think about what will happen when the bombs stop falling (except, perhaps for Hamas). They will start again and the IDF is giving them the recruiting material, every day.
I don’t believe that the solution can or will come from Netanyahu; he’s struggling for his own existence.
If there was ever a moment for Biden to act, this is the moment. He could emulate Jimmy Carter and force the parties to the table. An honest two state solution giving the Palestinians something to lose ( true statehood) would give them reason to abandon Hamas and the dead-enders who call for the destruction of Israel.
We’ve seen 75 years of foreign policy failure in the Middle East. I’d love to see just one year of success.
"There are solid alternatives to Israel’s approach."
A solid alternative must address the core objective and challenge: destroying Hamas's lethal network of tunnels. Israel can not live peacefully with such a threat on its border.
I have not heard a single ceasefire proponent offer a plan . They simply ignore the problem.
Generously, maybe a ceasefire will lead to an opportunity for the Palestinian population to turn against Hamas and their ilk. Is that the unspoken theory? Is that a realistic theory?
Turning swaths of Gaza into rubble does offer some opportunity to identify and destroy tunnels. I don't know what the best tactics and strategy should be.
Joe, I don't know where you get the "likely several thousand" Hamas killed figure, but it is way to high. Here is how I derive a figure of around one thousand. Recent numbers put total-deaths at around 15,000 and child-deaths at ar0ound 6,000. Children represent about 43% of the Gaza population. If we assume -- fairly I think -- that the child-deaths can be assigned to indiscriminate bombardment, i.e. not intentional, then we can extrapolate to the total number of indiscriminate deaths by dividing the child-deaths by 43%, yielding a number just shy of 14,000. This means that the total number of discriminate death is just over 1,000.
["But wait.", one might object, "aren't there some Hamas casualties among the indiscriminate deaths?" Yes, a few. Israel claims there are 30,000 Hamas fighters. The total Gaza population is 2,100,000, i.e. one out of 700 Gazans. So, of the 14,000 indisriminate deaths, 20 might be Hamas fighters. This does not significantly change the overall picture.]
When one looks at the women deaths, while assuming they represent 50% of the adult population, nearly all are covered by indiscriminate death. That matches my impression that nearly all of the Hamas fighters are men.
The ratio of indiscriminate to discriminate death is around 15 to 1. This is high but not atypical of asymmetric urban warfare. It is the scale of this attack which makes it particularly horrific. Although I, and among others INEW, would contend that use of explosive force in densely populated areas ought to be outlawed. Aaron
On the issue of civilian deaths. The New York Times report on these deaths is truly stunning. Researchers estimate that 70 percent of all the casualties are women and children. In past conflicts with Hamas in Gaza, it was the reverse, with about 60 percent of the casualties being men.
Many of the deaths have been the result of Israel using very large bombs to level entire neighborhoods - a tactic that the US rejected in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The NYT reports that the majority of the bombs used in the initial assault were 1,000 or 2,000 lb bombs.
As the Times reports:
"Israel’s liberal use of very large weapons in dense urban areas, including U.S.-made 2,000-pound bombs that can flatten an apartment tower, is surprising, some experts say.
“It’s beyond anything that I’ve seen in my career,” said Marc Garlasco, a military adviser for the Dutch organization PAX and a former senior intelligence analyst at the Pentagon. To find a historical comparison for so many large bombs in such a small area, he said, we may “have to go back to Vietnam, or the Second World War.”
"In fighting during this century, by contrast, U.S. military officials often believed that the most common American aerial bomb — a 500-pound weapon — was far too large for most targets when battling the Islamic State in urban areas like Mosul, Iraq, and Raqqa, Syria."
The NYT concludes: "More children have been killed in Gaza since the Israeli assault began than in the world’s major conflict zones combined — across two dozen countries — during all of last year, even with the war in Ukraine, according to U.N. tallies of verified child deaths in armed conflict."
Thank you for your comment, Aaron. Israel says that about 1,500 Hamas fighters were killed in the October 7 assault. Or about half the number Israel believes were involved in the attack. IDF figures for the war in Gaza are vague but military commanders report scores of Hamas fighters killed in intense battles in northern Gaza. So, I used the phrase "several thousand" since we do not know. The IDF says 75 of its soldiers have died the fighting.
I also relied on this assessment from the Financial Times:
https://www.ft.com/content/81717934-e941-4064-9371-30c517399879
A senior Israeli military official said the assault had “significantly hurt” 10 of Hamas’s 24 battalions, which before the war each had about 1,000 soldiers. Including the roughly 1,000 militants killed in Israel after Hamas launched the October 7 attack, Israeli officials estimate that 5,000 of Hamas’s roughly 25,000 fighters have now been killed. “It’s not 10,000, but it’s not 1,000. It’s something in the middle,” the senior military official said.
[I have a trick for getting around the NYT paywall, but it doesn't work for the FInancial Times. So, thanks for the quote.]
I was working with the figures for within Gaza; If the IDF is right about 1500 Al Qassam fighters in Israel, then that should be added to the appoximately 1000 in Gaza. Which is still not really "something in the middle."
The 5,000 guesstimate would suggest that Israel believes that children are dying indiscriminately at a rate almost 50% higher than adults. I don't find that credible. Once the dust settles (hopefully sooner than later), we might get a clearer picture. One thing we know already: it won't be pretty.
Apologies for hogging comment space, but I have some points to make which might very well not be made otherwise. I am for prolonging the pause, but not for a permanent ceasefire. Hamas will portray a ceasefire as a great victory. All the dead will be declared, "Martyrs!" The friends and relative of the dead will encouraged to feel proud of their "sacrifice" for the glorious cause. As you, Joe, and others have pointed out, Hamas' recruitment will boom, easily replacing the thousand lost. A pause will cast doubt on any supposed "victory", it will raise the question of how much more sacrifice is expected.
But a pause alone will not make a significant difference. As you point out, demanding that 2.1 million Gazan cram into 14 square-kms is utter madness. Any humane version of urban warfare MUST be accompanied by urban welfare. Israel is demanding that these millions of people move, disrupting every aspect of their lives, so -- in my book -- Israel is responsible for their welfare. That means food, shelter. water, sanitation, and health care. Hamas originally gained popularity for its welfare programs, right now it is hording food for its fighters and sheltering in its tunnels. Imagine if Israel assumed responsibility for the welfare of the noncombattant Gazans. What a change of heart that might engender.
Is Israel capable of such generousity? Or rather assumption of resposnibility? I have zero confidence that Neyanyahu's gang is capable of it. The sooner a new government take over in Israel the better. I would like to beieve that the people of Israel are so capable. [One small positive step: Israel allowed Jordan to airdrop food and medical supplies to its hosptial in Gaza, twice.]
This war has its roots in 3000 years of turmoil. From the time a monotheistic tribe turned against the Cannanites. Year after year it goes on. Regardless of these historical issues, it now is the state of Israel against the people it surplanted in the late 1940's. It is long past time for this to stop. Israel is not going anywhere. And the Palestinians are going to feel wronged until a legitimate accommodation is made. It seems to me that most Arab countries are ready to end this cycle of violence. Hamas and other terrorist organizations need to be mitigated, not by endless violence, but by all of the governments in the region reaching a settlement that is fair to all. Endless killing will not fix anything. The Unitied States needs to be a mediator, not a facilitater. And only the USA has the leverage to do so.
Joe-How easy it is to sit at our desks and theorize. We don’t have any threat from marauders or 2000 lb bombs falling from the sky.
I think I was channeling Yogi, though when I responded to one of your earlier posts. If the ‘plan’ was to exterminate Hamas, it has been and will be a failure of epic proportions. I’d compare it to an effort to rid DC or NYC of rats. It ain’t gonna happen.
No one seems to think about what will happen when the bombs stop falling (except, perhaps for Hamas). They will start again and the IDF is giving them the recruiting material, every day.
I don’t believe that the solution can or will come from Netanyahu; he’s struggling for his own existence.
If there was ever a moment for Biden to act, this is the moment. He could emulate Jimmy Carter and force the parties to the table. An honest two state solution giving the Palestinians something to lose ( true statehood) would give them reason to abandon Hamas and the dead-enders who call for the destruction of Israel.
We’ve seen 75 years of foreign policy failure in the Middle East. I’d love to see just one year of success.
Tom
"There are solid alternatives to Israel’s approach."
A solid alternative must address the core objective and challenge: destroying Hamas's lethal network of tunnels. Israel can not live peacefully with such a threat on its border.
I have not heard a single ceasefire proponent offer a plan . They simply ignore the problem.
Generously, maybe a ceasefire will lead to an opportunity for the Palestinian population to turn against Hamas and their ilk. Is that the unspoken theory? Is that a realistic theory?
Turning swaths of Gaza into rubble does offer some opportunity to identify and destroy tunnels. I don't know what the best tactics and strategy should be.