Ukraine Strikes Back
What you need to know about the counter-offensive
The fight to liberate Ukraine’s people and lands from Russian occupation has begun. Ukrainian armed forces have intensified their strikes on front-line Russian positions, transitioning from probes and shaping operations to full armored assaults. The fighting is intense. The army is taking heavy casualties in some areas while making rapid advances in others, particularly, it seems, around Bakhmut.
I talked about the offensive with Zerlina Maxwell on Sirius XM radio and then to the Los Angeles World Affairs Council on June 7. Let me draw from those talks to make a few key points that will help you understand the battle as it unfolds.
The fighting will take months. Russian forces are dug in with multiple defensive lines. While some may break and flee (there is already video on social media of this), other, better trained troops will strongly resist.
There will not be one major armored assault, as was the case in the Allied storming of Normandy, but fighting along much of the 600-mile long front. When there are breakthroughs, Ukraine will rush to exploit the breach.
Ukraine’s newly-trained and equipped armored forces will see action for the first time. They are armed with Leopard 2 tanks from Germany, Bradley Fighting Vehicles from the U.S., and dozens of artillery, air defense and mine removal equipment from NATO countries.
The main objective of the offense is to cut the land bridge that Russia created in its 2022 invasion that links Russia proper to Crimea. The Russian destruction of the dam at Nova Kakhovka was likely an effort to disrupt a Ukrainian advance in this area and to divert Ukrainian resources to rescue operations. In the latest sign of Russian military incompetance, the flood waters forced Russian troops on the eastern shore of the river to abandon their positions.
While the destruction of the dam raised water levels below the site of the dam, flooding hundreds of square miles of farmland, towns and cities along the shore, it lowered water levels above the dam, including the site of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The water is now too low to serve as a source of coolant for the plant’s reactors and stored fuel rods.
The nuclear plant has a cooling reservoir that can provide water needed for several months, but IAEA Director Rafeal Marino Grossi warned that it is essential that the structural integrity of this pond be preserved. He will go to the site next week. The Kyiv Independent reports today that the “drop in the Dnipro River's water level could cause the internal pressure of the water in the plant's cooling pond to rupture the surrounding dike” collapsing the pond.
This is one of many threats facing the Zaporizhzhia nuclear site. I have reported previously that Russia might trigger a major nuclear catastrophe intentionally or by accident. A country willing to blow up a vital dam may well be willing to destroy a vital nuclear plant.
The Ukrainian offensive is the best chance to bring peace to Ukraine. There is no evidence that Vladimir Putin is willing to end his war and withdraw his troops. For the security of Ukraine, Europe and the Western world, Ukraine must win this war and Putin must lose. There is no other way to restore Ukraine’s sovereignty, guarantee the freedom of its people and end Putin’s imperial designs. Only when his army is defeated can real negotiations to free Ukraine and preserve its borders begin. We all must hope for Ukraine’s victory in this crucial battle.
There are two direct links between Russia and occupied Crimea: the bridge Putin built after his 2014 invasion and the "land bridge" he created after his 2022 invasion. If Ukraine's offensive succeeds in cutting the land bridge (a big if), many believe that Ukraine will use missile strikes to cut the Crimean Bridge over the Strait of Kerch. That would make it impossible for Russia to supply its troops in Crimea. Ukrainian forces would also then be close enough to Crimea to hit Russian bases there with missile attacks. It could make it untenable for Russia to continue to hold Crimea.
Joe, how important is the eastern tip of Crimea where it almost touches Russia? There's a big bridge there, right? Can that bridge be taken out? If yes, would that have a meaningful impact on the status of Crimea?
In your view, what would happen if Russia were to withdraw it's troops back in to Russia, and then continue hitting Ukraine from bases within Russia? Is Ukrainian missile defense adequate to protect against this? Would the Russian bases have to be hit? Can Ukraine hit those bases without the use of NATO weapons?