There are two direct links between Russia and occupied Crimea: the bridge Putin built after his 2014 invasion and the "land bridge" he created after his 2022 invasion. If Ukraine's offensive succeeds in cutting the land bridge (a big if), many believe that Ukraine will use missile strikes to cut the Crimean Bridge over the Strait of Kerch. That would make it impossible for Russia to supply its troops in Crimea. Ukrainian forces would also then be close enough to Crimea to hit Russian bases there with missile attacks. It could make it untenable for Russia to continue to hold Crimea.
Joe, how important is the eastern tip of Crimea where it almost touches Russia? There's a big bridge there, right? Can that bridge be taken out? If yes, would that have a meaningful impact on the status of Crimea?
In your view, what would happen if Russia were to withdraw it's troops back in to Russia, and then continue hitting Ukraine from bases within Russia? Is Ukrainian missile defense adequate to protect against this? Would the Russian bases have to be hit? Can Ukraine hit those bases without the use of NATO weapons?
The quickest way to defeat Putin's agenda would be for the Ukrainians to disengage from Russian forces, in exchange for immediate membership in NATO. No negotiation required.
NATO troops and weapons could then flood in to Ukraine, along with a Marshall Plan style rebuilding effort. 80% of Ukraine would then be free, secure, safe and on the road to prosperity. The Ukrainians have proven that Russia is no match for NATO, which should be clear even to the Russians at this point.
Sanctions on Russia can be continually strengthened so as to further disconnect Russia from the global economy. Sooner or later Putin will die or fall, and the next Russian government can blame the war on Putin, wash it's hands of the war, and trade occupied Ukrainian territory for an end to sanctions.
Such an arrangement would be strategic defeat for Putin, but it would be defeat that he can sell as a victory to the Russian people. This seems important. It's only when Putin has a victory to sell that he'll be in a position to quit. It doesn't seem realistic to me that Putin will just accept a full Ukrainian victory as doing is likely to put his regime, and his life, at risk. If that's true, then Putin would have little to lose by rolling even bigger dice in a desperate attempt to survive.
If the war drags on in an endless stalemate the occupied parts of Ukraine will be utterly demolished, the rest of Ukraine will remain under attack and at risk, the slaughter will continue, and the possibility of nuclear escalation continues. And Western public support for another "endless war" will gradually melt away. Putin is right about that.
At the end of this year's fighting season we should be prepared to declare victory, allow Putin to declare victory, and go ahead and do what's going to have to be done sooner or later, give Ukraine NATO membership.
I will admit to being skeptical that either the Ukrainians or all NATO members will be ready to take such a step. It should be explained to the reluctant that if the war drags on, sooner or later the public will give up, and a Republican will once again be in the White House, and then the war will be resolved on their terms.
There are two direct links between Russia and occupied Crimea: the bridge Putin built after his 2014 invasion and the "land bridge" he created after his 2022 invasion. If Ukraine's offensive succeeds in cutting the land bridge (a big if), many believe that Ukraine will use missile strikes to cut the Crimean Bridge over the Strait of Kerch. That would make it impossible for Russia to supply its troops in Crimea. Ukrainian forces would also then be close enough to Crimea to hit Russian bases there with missile attacks. It could make it untenable for Russia to continue to hold Crimea.
Joe, how important is the eastern tip of Crimea where it almost touches Russia? There's a big bridge there, right? Can that bridge be taken out? If yes, would that have a meaningful impact on the status of Crimea?
In your view, what would happen if Russia were to withdraw it's troops back in to Russia, and then continue hitting Ukraine from bases within Russia? Is Ukrainian missile defense adequate to protect against this? Would the Russian bases have to be hit? Can Ukraine hit those bases without the use of NATO weapons?
The quickest way to defeat Putin's agenda would be for the Ukrainians to disengage from Russian forces, in exchange for immediate membership in NATO. No negotiation required.
NATO troops and weapons could then flood in to Ukraine, along with a Marshall Plan style rebuilding effort. 80% of Ukraine would then be free, secure, safe and on the road to prosperity. The Ukrainians have proven that Russia is no match for NATO, which should be clear even to the Russians at this point.
Sanctions on Russia can be continually strengthened so as to further disconnect Russia from the global economy. Sooner or later Putin will die or fall, and the next Russian government can blame the war on Putin, wash it's hands of the war, and trade occupied Ukrainian territory for an end to sanctions.
Such an arrangement would be strategic defeat for Putin, but it would be defeat that he can sell as a victory to the Russian people. This seems important. It's only when Putin has a victory to sell that he'll be in a position to quit. It doesn't seem realistic to me that Putin will just accept a full Ukrainian victory as doing is likely to put his regime, and his life, at risk. If that's true, then Putin would have little to lose by rolling even bigger dice in a desperate attempt to survive.
If the war drags on in an endless stalemate the occupied parts of Ukraine will be utterly demolished, the rest of Ukraine will remain under attack and at risk, the slaughter will continue, and the possibility of nuclear escalation continues. And Western public support for another "endless war" will gradually melt away. Putin is right about that.
At the end of this year's fighting season we should be prepared to declare victory, allow Putin to declare victory, and go ahead and do what's going to have to be done sooner or later, give Ukraine NATO membership.
I will admit to being skeptical that either the Ukrainians or all NATO members will be ready to take such a step. It should be explained to the reluctant that if the war drags on, sooner or later the public will give up, and a Republican will once again be in the White House, and then the war will be resolved on their terms.