What Putin Wants You to Think

Russia’s Disinformation Campaign Manipulates US Groups

If you think the West caused the war in Ukraine and wants “to bleed Russia dry,” or that aiding Ukraine prolongs and escalates the war, or that we can get peace by insisting on a ceasefire and negotiating a comprise on the land Russia now occupies, then it might be good for you to consider why you think this.

It may well be that it is the result of careful consideration, deep familiarity with the history of Ukraine, long-held views on the futility or war or justifiable distrust of America’s record of unnecessary overseas wars.

It may also be because you have been skillfully manipulated by Russian influence campaigns.

Photo by Ahmed Zalabany on Unsplash

For years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has supported massive disinformation campaigns to confuse and divide the American public. Many are familiar with his interventions in the 2016 presidential campaign that helped Donald Trump eek out a victory, detailed in a comprehensive 2020 Senate Judiciary Committee report. Putin has been even more active on Ukraine.

Russian influence operations that target American audiences are now focused “almost entirely on the war in Ukraine,” reports Shannon Vavra, the national security reporter for The Daily Beast. Summarizing findings from a U.S. intelligence assessment last year, she says:

Russian state media and proxy information operations are working to paint Western support for Ukraine as the reason the war is dragging on so long, and the reason there is a growing food crisis. Never mind the fact the conflict and grain export problems exist because Putin chose to invade Ukraine in the first place.

Vavra says that the U.S. intelligence community bulletin she obtained shows that Russian operations have been particularly hammering on the theme that Western military aid to Ukraine escalates the war:

Outlets regularly published stories about Western arms shipments and pledges of aid to Ukraine, saying that they further destabilize and prolong the conflict. Outlets spread claims that there was no accountability for weapons entering Ukraine, which would likely lead to them being misdirected.

Russian efforts also seek to “advance politician or these that would reverse sanctions against Russia,” Vavra says. A third, complementary effort is to discredit Ukraine’s government and politicians in Washington who support Ukraine’s resistance.

A 2022 report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Europe (OECD) provided a list of the most common Russian false claims, many picked up by American groups.

Why is Russia doing this? Because it works. An October 2022 study by the Germany-based Center for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy, found that 40 percent of Germans agreed or partially agreed with the statement that Russia's war was an unavoidable response to NATO provocation, perhaps the major false claim spread by Russia.

Simply being aware of these Russian operations does not prevent them from working. There have been dozens of reports in Western media about the efforts. The Guardian, for example, warned in 2017 that “Russian trolls and automated bots not only promoted explicitly pro-Donald Trump messaging, but also used social media to sow social divisions in America by stoking disagreement and division.” The Washington Post reported in 2019 on the Russian troll farm called The Internet Research Agency that in 2014 “began to promote propaganda and target American voters with polarizing messaging.”

In January 2018, the Democratic Staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee issued what may be the best, most comprehensive study of Russian disinformation operations.

Mr. Putin has thus made it a priority of his regime to attack the democracies of Europe and the United States and undermine the transatlantic alliance upon which Europe’s peace and prosperity have depended upon for over 70 years. — Putin’s Asymmetric Assault on Democracy in Russia and Europe, January 2018

The report reminded us that disinformation is not a new phenomenon. During the Cold War, “active measures,” or disinformation were fully integrated into Putin’s old service, the KGB (p. 35). Soviet operatives knew that propaganda works best when it takes advantage of existing divisions. As one practitioner put it, “every disinformation message must at least partially correspond to reality or generally accepted views” (p. 36).

Thus, the KGB took advantage of the genuine fear of nuclear war in the 1980s caused by dangerous US and Soviet policies to get the arms control and disarmament movements in Europe to focus on the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons, not Soviet ones (p.36). That may be one reason why the massive demonstrations in Europe targeted deployments of American Pershing missiles and ground-launched cruise missiles and not the hundreds of Soviet SS-20s pouring into Eastern Europe.

One of the most illuminating findings of the Democratic Staff report is that:

The Kremlin’s disinformation operations do not necessarily try to convince foreign audiences that the Russian point of view is the correct one. Rather, they seek to confuse and distort events that threaten Russia’s image (including historical events), undercut international consensus on Russia’s behavior at home and abroad, and present Russia as a responsible and indispensable global power.

These efforts have four key tactics: dismiss the critic, distort the facts, distract from the main issue, and dismay the audience. (p. 39)

Today, many who oppose helping Ukraine defeat Putin’s war routinely condemn the invasion, but then focus nearly all their anger, petitions, actions, and reporting on NATO, the U.S. and Ukraine’s government.

Here, for example, is a poster for the Peace in Ukraine Coalition of CODEPINK, Veterans for Peace, Democratic Socialists of America International Committee, and Women's International League for Peace and Freedom-US. Glaringly absent from the poster and these groups’ analysis of the war is any mention of Putin’s unprovoked invasion, war crimes or constant escalation of the fighting.   

Similarly, the demands of the coalition against the war that held protests in Washington, D.C. on March 18 give Putin a free pass. All the demands are of the West, not Russia.

Many organizations simply have little or no content on Russia on their websites. Few if any of these antiwar groups, for example, have condemned the outrageous conviction and 25-year sentencing of anti-war activist and Putin political opponent Vladimir Kara-Murza for his “crime” of condemning Putin’s war.

Intentionally or not, they are dismissing Russian critics, distorting the facts, distracting from the main issue and helping Putin escape any responsibility for his aggression.

There are certainly well-meaning people working for peace in Ukraine. I personally know the leaders of CODEPINK and worked with them to avoid a war with Iran. But all of us should be checking our sources of information to screen out active Russian disinformation that is warping our views.

It’s not easy. You don’t have to watch Russia Today TV or listen to Sputnik radio to be influenced. If you use social media on Ukraine, you have undoubtedly seen or been targeted by Russian trolls, disguised as average Americans or Europeans. A New York Times investigation found that hundreds of young Russians were employed in these farms, working 12-hour shifts, posting scores of comments. An update in 2020 provided chilling examples of how these trolls disguised themselves at users such as “The Heart of Texas” or “Progressive Views.”

This should not dissuade us from engaging on social media. A good rule, though, is not to trust organizations that blame only one side for the war. If you are a member of such a group, argue that it should not give Putin a Get Out of War Free card. Most importantly, look at a group’s website and if there is little or no criticism of Putin, ask why.

Stay engaged, but as the old sergeant on Hill Street Blues used to say at the end of his briefing, “Be careful out there.”

UPDATE: On April 19, UK intelligence services posted a summary of their assessment of Russian disinformation campaigns. It tracks closely with the analysis presented in the article. Twitter thread is here: @DefenceHQ

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1648563457480900608?s=20